Author Topic: Power and gas is to expensive.  (Read 239205 times)

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Offline Bird

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #475 on: September 11, 2018, 06:20:41 PM »
.....and the brunt of the bill will be felt by those who can least afford it, and those not in a position to take advantage of the scheme....
exactly.... If I had a spare $20,000 layin round I'd be in like flynn with batteries, panels the works.


also I dont know how true, those pumping back into the grid - if they need to draw from the grid they pay more than everyone else?
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Offline Cruiser 105Tvan

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #476 on: September 11, 2018, 06:46:36 PM »
exactly.... If I had a spare $20,000 layin round I'd be in like flynn with batteries, panels the works.

Also, I dont know how true, those pumping back into the grid - if they need to draw from the grid they pay more than everyone else?

Be like when they introduced Domestic Solar Systems.
The people that purchased systems were faced with a very confusing set of rates and charges and were told they had to stay connected to the grid.
Some benefited, some didn't.
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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #477 on: October 04, 2018, 05:20:04 PM »
I see our PM in waiting has had an epiphany on drilling for gas-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/offshore-gas-worth-considering-shorten/ar-BBNTZJE
He doesn't want to tell Mr Andrews how to run things but here have an elbow in the ribs mate as it could well be the buck stops with me soon inheriting the national grid fast heading for a train wreck as we keep retiring and blowing up thermal power stations.

But here's some quick maths for the wind and battery fans now the Liberal Gummint have released the Whetherill Gummint's hush hush costing on the Hornsdale wind farm with Telsla's big battery (the 9 diesel gennys we'll forget about). $90 million for 100MW of installed capacity but at best wind farms only average 30% of installed capacity so that means an investment cost of $3000 per kilowatt before running costs and depreciation. Now my power bill shows average kwhrs/day for various households to compare against and for household of 4 they reckon 17.8 kw/day average so that wind and battery would need to invest 17.8 times $3000 or $53400 to keep the household running. Well at 5% interest that's $2670 a year mum dad and the 2 kids have to stump up in interest before any running costs and depreciation- ie paying back the $53,400 before it's rinse repeat.


But that isn't the end of the matter because Germany's lead with Energiewinde is in deep trouble as the Federal Audit Officenotes-
http://www.thegwpf.com/germany-risks-complete-loss-of-control-of-energiewende-federal-audit-office-warns/
That's because research shows that all their copious wind turbines only save around 8% of their installed capacity which is not hard to appreciate here in Australia too when you look at our typical wind output graph-
https://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2018/june

So if the Hornsdale facility could only guarantee say 10% of its installed capacity 24/7 at present then you can see those above figures get multiplied by 3 for the investment for our 4 person household and yowzah! Basically you aint seen nothing yet if we're all to enjoy that 'free' energy from Gaia and get rid of fossil fuels altogether but that's probably where Bill is coming from as the penny drops he could well be inheriting this out of control pipe dream from Green technical and economic illiterates.



There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline Poita

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #478 on: October 05, 2018, 11:12:57 PM »
https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-claims-its-first-major-fossil-fuel-victim-30614/

Offline Bigfish

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #479 on: October 06, 2018, 07:50:06 AM »
https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-claims-its-first-major-fossil-fuel-victim-30614/


I read that as well a week ago...Interesting.

I also read an article on lithium batteries. It stated that that there are 38 minerals required to make a lithium battery.  All of which are found in Australia.  How frickin hard could it be to actually have the govt invest in companies (like they do with many millions of dollars for their future funds) and manufacture the things here?  It is estimated that the actual cost could drop by over 90% within 15 years. Limit our valuable resources as to what goes over seas and require the bigger percentage to be used in manufacturing here in Oz..  This should also apply to other natural resources.  Biggest problem is that we live in a "I want it now society".  In 50 years we will have lost most of our natural resources and our grandkids are going to wonder why the old folk were such idiots and greedy pricks for killing off the land  as well as its fauna and flora.

LINK TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND BATTERIES..

https://stockhead.com.au/tech/battery-prices-are-plunging-and-that-could-drive-an-electric-car-industry-in-australia/

It doesn't matter how many positive posts about renewable energies are posted on here (and I believe the future is definitely with renewables) there will be dinosaurs who prefer to bury their heads in the sand...

Here is a link as to how renewable is saving Port Augusta in S.A.  ...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-05/port-augusta-becomes-australian-renewable-energy-hub/10338812
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 08:06:51 AM by Bigfish »
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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #480 on: October 14, 2018, 12:46:37 AM »
The Tesla battery at Hornsdale is making money hand over fist as a first adopter creaming the top of the FCAS market which of itself has been created by a plethora of fickle wind and solar power being added to the grid all over the place. You need to understand how the FCAS market has been set up in answer to that rising problem here-
http://ceem.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/WIW13_Riesz-FCAS-2013-09-02a.pdf
The AEMO is also attempting to make addons pay somewhat for their marginal loss factors too in that regard-
https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-wind-farms-hit-as-aemo-slashes-output-calculations-18481/

In that respect both Origin Energy and AGL have only just spoken up with their concerns about adding more and more 'unfirm' power as they refer to these unreliables, which they themselves have been engaged in. What they're concerned about is increasing grid instability with the demise of large centralised thermal power stations that supply spinning inertia to the system and the fallacy of composition problem as they disappear and more and more fickle electrons are added to the grid.

In that respect what really should have happened with the move to renewables was a level playing field right from the start. ie no supplier of electrons to the communal grid should be allowed to tender any more than they can reasonably guarantee (ie short of unforeseen mechanical failure) 24/7 all year round. That way solar and wind would have to invest in storage to up their average tender or else partner with thermal generators and pay them their just insurance premia or some combination of the two. The problem now is political and who's got the guts to tell it like it is that if you can't guarantee your electrons you can keep them. That certainly won't go down well with the mums and dads with rooftop solar and they know Tesla Powerwalls don't stack up added to their panels.

That level playing field never happened and hence when the SA Labor Govt were faced with the growing prospect of cascading blackouts over summer they rushed out the Tesla battery and 9 diesel gennys that could consume 80,000litres of diesel an hour so you get the picture. While the Tesla battery is currently very useful at supplying FCAS at a moment's notice and making a big earn in the process that sort of investment is really needed for ALL solar and wind in order to provide stable reliable power on tap. It's very expensive though and we haven't paid for that yet and already SA joins the dearest world power price club and for those of you who think battery prices are coming down and we're all going to jump into EVs in future BMW have some unpleasant news for you- https://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/news/why-youll-always-pay-extra-for-evs/ar-BBO5c2C

It's like this. Solar and wind power are very cheap to produce at the margin but we as consumers are interested in the average dispatchable cost at the flick of a switch and just like EVs when you have to account for the investment in making it reliable the cost gets really ugly. If you don't believe that just ask yourself who do you know with a BEV in the garage or a Tesla Powerwall or two attached to their solar panels?

PS: You do have to read between the lines with these feast or famine electrons that shift the bill to your poorer neighbours-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/company-news/australia-heading-for-a-battle-royale-on-solar-power/ar-BBOngef
And freecamping swaggers knowing what it takes to run a piddling fridge and a few LED lights on solar and batteries when it's overcast for 3 or 4 days should be the first to see through the rooftop solar BS that's been peddled to date.






 


 
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 10:28:12 AM by prodigyrf »
There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #481 on: October 23, 2018, 10:35:21 AM »
Not to worry as it's all going to be fixed in a jiffy and South Australians are going to get the biggest bucks back because we're the nicest people at saving the planet  :cup:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/personalfinance/power-prices-could-ease/ar-BBOKeGP

Trust them, they're from the Gummint and they're here to help  ;D
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Offline Bigfish

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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #484 on: November 14, 2018, 10:19:24 PM »
There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline GeoffA

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #485 on: November 15, 2018, 05:55:51 AM »
Some more info for the nay sayers...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-01/coal-report-warns-of-grim-future-for-australian-thermal-coal/10452456

Who is/are the IEEFA?

https://growaldfamilyfund.org/institute-for-energy-economics-and-financial-analysis-ieefa.html

Looks like just another bloke pushing his own agenda. Lots of waffle, but very little of substance on the web site.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2018, 06:21:39 AM by GeoffA »
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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #486 on: November 15, 2018, 10:44:10 PM »
Perhaps the climastrologists plugging tree rings, etc into their computer models were really tracking the price of unreliable power instead of our long interglacial warming that's seen the rise of mankind-
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/11/climate-models-are-a-joke/
But then the doomsdayers got it wrong predicting the next Ice Age back in the 70s as well although the current lot of warmies have done their best to erase that embarrassing episode despite the internet having a long memory-
http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/13/massive-cover-up-exposed-285-papers-from-1960s-80s-reveal-robust-global-cooling-scientific-consensus/

Still there's no stopping the current lot of technological illiterates trying to disprove a fundamental axiom of engineering, namely that you can't make a reliable system from unreliable componentry but they're determined to die in a ditch disproving it. There's no shortage of these movers and shakers committing political suicide trying to marry affordable power with despatchable/reliable Green power while our national grid heads for a train wreck with their dogged determination. Something about breaking a few eggs to make their omelette and where have we heard that before?
There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline Cruiser 105Tvan

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #487 on: November 15, 2018, 11:01:46 PM »
Is that similar to our financial system being forced to endure a financial depression/collapse, because a Politician thought it was a good idea?
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Offline Pete79

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Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #488 on: December 05, 2018, 03:08:22 PM »
Some facts out of China...
The last couple of paragraphs pretty much tell the story and it’s much different to what we’ve been getting told around here lately.

“SHANGHAI (Reuters) - A group of three Chinese regions failed to meet their targets to curb energy consumption growth and improve efficiency last year, the country’s top planning authority said in a notice published on Wednesday.

Liaoning province in the rustbelt northeast and the big coal producing regions of Ningxia and Xinjiang in the northwest failed to meet targets to cap rises in energy use and reduce the amount of energy consumed per unit of economic growth, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said.

China has been trying to fashion what it has called an “energy revolution” in order to ensure the economy continues to grow without significant increases in fossil fuel consumption, carbon emissions and pollution.

It aims to keep annual primary energy consumption at less than 5 billion tonnes of standard coal by 2020, up from 4.5 billion tonnes last year. It has also said it would cut energy intensity - the amount consumed per unit of economic growth - by 15 percent over the 2016-2020 period.

Though 12 provinces and regions exceeded their targets last year, some have continued to struggle. Liaoning, an old industrial base dominated by sectors like coal, oil and machinery, has struggled to diversify and its economy has been one of the country’s worst performers.

Meanwhile, Ningxia and Xinjiang are emerging as major new coal and electric power suppliers as traditional “energy bases” near the eastern coast come under greater pressure to curb air pollution.

China is trying to encourage regions to make greater use of clean and renewable energy resources, and it said on Tuesday that it would implement a new renewable energy quota system and improve grid access for wind, hydro and solar generators.

Meanwhile, state news agency Xinhua said on Tuesday, citing research from a government think-tank, that traditional coal-fired power plants are coming under increasing financial pressure as cleaner rivals become more competitive and their fuel, financing and environmental compliance costs increase.

According to research by the China Institute for Reform and Development, nearly half of China’s thermal power generators are facing losses as a result of their inability to pass higher costs onto consumers, with many turning into “zombie enterprises” after being forced into a “vicious circle” of debt.”


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-efficiency/china-says-three-regions-failed-to-meet-energy-efficiency-targets-last-year-idUSKBN1O40BW?utm
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 03:10:52 PM by Pete79 »

Offline paceman

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #489 on: December 05, 2018, 03:59:57 PM »
Some facts out of China...
The last couple of paragraphs pretty much tell the story and it’s much different to what we’ve been getting told around here lately.

facts? really?  just another news report out of china...  changes all the time...

depending on who you believe, satellite photos don't always lie...

https://grist.org/article/china-said-it-was-done-with-these-coal-plants-satellite-imagery-shows-otherwise/


in any case, i wonder if proponents of pure renewables would seriously believe that an only renewable-powered grid would have handled the energy needs of queensland, 24/7, in the heat wave conditions we've just experienced in central qld?

if you do, then you are delusional.


i thought this thought exercise was interesting, from https://papundits.wordpress.com/

Has anyone ever wondered about that gigantic ‘powerhouse’ that is rooftop solar?
The average system is around 5KW, and there is now supposedly 8GW (which is 8,000,000KW) of rooftop solar installed, so that averages out to around 1.6 Million installations. (average, because there’s way more than that)
Now, keep in mind how the cost for those rooftop systems has fallen dramatically, so let’s just do the sums on today’s price, keeping in mind that the cost has fallen, so it’s way way more than this. The average cost for the average system is around $4000, so the total cost for all this rooftop solar is around $6.4 Billion.
That 8 GW doesn’t actually generate 8GW of power, as the Capacity Factor for rooftop solar is around 18%, so 18% of 8GW is 1440MW.
So, effectively, we have a 1440MW ‘powerhouse’ which has cost $6.4 Billion PLUS.
But it hasn’t replaced any 1440MW power plant, because this is 2 million or more of these tiny little distributed inverters spread across the whole Country, not one large power plant with four Units delivering power in one humungous bulk amount, that actually is useful.
But hey, renewables are just …. soooooo much cheaper than coal fired power, eh!


and this as well (an add-on comment to the original above):

And, unlike coal or hydro, does NOT provide “system support” functions – essentially, they have no inertia, so don’t provide frequency support, don’t respond well to reactive loads, and are likely to drop off-line at a moments notice even when there’s no fault.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 04:12:57 PM by paceman »

Offline Pete79

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Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #490 on: December 05, 2018, 04:50:50 PM »
facts? really?

depending on who you believe, satellite photos don't always lie...

https://grist.org/article/china-said-it-was-done-with-these-coal-plants-satellite-imagery-shows-otherwise/

Yep.

Satellite imagery supports the facts..

China has been trying to fashion what it has called an “energy revolution” in order to ensure the economy continues to grow without significant increases in fossil fuel consumption, carbon emissions and pollution.

It aims to keep annual primary energy consumption at less than 5 billion tonnes of standard coal by 2020, up from 4.5 billion tonnes last year. It has also said it would cut energy intensity - the amount consumed per unit of economic growth - by 15 percent over the 2016-2020 period.

Though 12 provinces and regions exceeded their targets last year, some have continued to struggle. Liaoning, an old industrial base dominated by sectors like coal, oil and machinery, has struggled to diversify and its economy has been one of the country’s worst performers.

Meanwhile, Ningxia and Xinjiang are emerging as major new coal and electric power suppliers as traditional “energy bases” near the eastern coast come under greater pressure to curb air pollution.

China is trying to encourage regions to make greater use of clean and renewable energy resources, and it said on Tuesday that it would implement a new renewable energy quota system and improve grid access for wind, hydro and solar generators.

Meanwhile, state news agency Xinhua said on Tuesday, citing research from a government think-tank, that traditional coal-fired power plants are coming under increasing financial pressure as cleaner rivals become more competitive and their fuel, financing and environmental compliance costs increase.

According to research by the China Institute for Reform and Development, nearly half of China’s thermal power generators are facing losses as a result of their inability to pass higher costs onto consumers, with many turning into “zombie enterprises” after being forced into a “vicious circle” of debt.”


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-efficiency/china-says-three-regions-failed-to-meet-energy-efficiency-targets-last-year-idUSKBN1O40BW?utm

An extra 0.5 billion tones of coal obviously have to get burnt somewhere.

To use your words, you’d have to be delusional to think China is going to produce the vast majority of the worlds products and not need to build new power supplies.

And as the article states, some provenance exceeded their targets and they are still prospering.
While others that are stuck in the olden days refuse to diversify, their economies are one of the country’s worst performers.

The article does not say China isn’t building any new coal fired power stations, but it does say the OLD coal power is fast becoming an economic liability.

The biggest thing I take from the story is China is TRYING to change its ways and do something to reduce pollution for the betterment of their society. Which is really saying something considering our current political leaders in this country can’t even acknowledge there’s a problem.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 04:53:04 PM by Pete79 »

Offline paceman

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #491 on: December 05, 2018, 05:14:51 PM »
The article does not say China isn’t building any new coal fired power stations, but it does say the OLD coal power is fast becoming an economic liability.

so, why not new, cleaner coal power?

The biggest thing I take from the story is China is TRYING to change its ways and do something to reduce pollution for the betterment of their society. Which is really saying something considering our current political leaders in this country can’t even acknowledge there’s a problem.

whilst changing ways is admirable (when done with common sense), in this case, it unfortunately comes at the expense of cheap, reliable and plentiful power that humanity thrives on...

and also contributes to the ever-rising costs of living, which are already pushing plenty to the brink...

we are already seeing both of these scenarios play out here in australia, where soon it will be the haves and have nots, when it comes to energy consumption.



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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #492 on: December 05, 2018, 05:22:03 PM »
Quote from: paceman
so, why not new, cleaner coal power?

we have a winner. technology has come a few ft forward since the old coal powered were built...
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Offline paceman

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #493 on: December 05, 2018, 05:26:05 PM »
we have a winner. technology has come a few ft forward since the old coal powered were built...

It’s not even an option for some.

It offers a tangible, realistic bridging point to the renewables panacea that some think is inevitable.


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Offline Pete79

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Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #494 on: December 05, 2018, 05:58:52 PM »
we have a winner. technology has come a few ft forward since the old coal powered were built...
The only thing stopping any investment in new power is the last 11 years of political stupidity.

ETS, no ETS, RET, no RET, Carbon tax, no carbon tax, NEG, no NEG and on and on it goes with no end in sight.
Oh sorry, I forgot this current mob have now got a “big stick”, whatever the f*** that means...!!

What company would ever invest in a massive infrastructure project like a power station when we have political leaders that have absolutely no direction for our country’s future?

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #495 on: December 05, 2018, 06:07:45 PM »
The only thing stopping any investment in new power is the last 11 years of political stupidity.
I hope your not waiting for that to change.... ???

Other countries overseas are pissing themselves at AU, as they are building Modern Coal Powered stations... and moving forward...

While our leaders cannot see past trying to get re-elected in few years time - say what the lemmings want to hear, keep the lemmings happy.
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Offline JusyApples

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #496 on: December 05, 2018, 06:08:26 PM »
Build more power stations, whether it’s nuclear or coal I don’t care. Someone just needs the balls to do it


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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #497 on: December 05, 2018, 07:29:24 PM »
Build more power stations, whether it’s nuclear or coal I don’t care. Someone just needs the balls to do it


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They will......but not until we are backed into a corner with large scale blackouts etc, then we'll pay thru the nose for a quick bandaid solution.
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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #498 on: December 05, 2018, 07:50:22 PM »
They will......but not until we are backed into a corner with large scale blackouts etc, then we'll pay thru the nose for a quick bandaid solution.
Seems to be the Australian way


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Offline Bigfish

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #499 on: December 05, 2018, 08:15:18 PM »
Clean coal???  WTF!!   .  Clean coal...what a friggin joke
Having lots of friends on farcebook is the same as having lots of money in monopoly...means absolutely nothing!!