Author Topic: Power and gas is to expensive.  (Read 199723 times)

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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #175 on: November 29, 2017, 11:03:49 PM »
Imagine if customers paid in 5 min interval prices.   


Well interestingly enough when we do that in metro areas with our response to fuel prices on the hoardings at servos we drive a cyclical supply price when we treat fuel supply as an indistinguishable mass like electricity. In that respect the fuel suppliers get an average return even if you as an adroit individual consumer with lots of jerry cans can beat that average price. (actually that ability is lost the moment a regulator requires fuel retailers to advertise their price 24hrs ahead like Perth and the cycle disappears to the average in the middle)

So it is with electricity where retailers on our behalf have to average out their supply cost from all those generator bids and charge us accordingly and to do that they often have to play the futures game with big bucks and risk for which consumers inevitably have to pay. It doesn't make their task any easier with so many dispersed and varied generators, rather than the few traditional large thumpers and why public servants with no incentive to get it right could easily create another State Bank disaster in that environment. The bozos did after all believe they could disprove that fundamental axiom with these unreliables remember and now we're using refined fossil fuels to cover their asses  :'(
There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline Bigfish

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #176 on: November 30, 2017, 06:47:50 AM »
I keep banging on about base load, but the greenies will argue till the cows come home that renewables can fix that. Maybe in 20yrs time, but for now, we still need coal.
Ask any renewable advocate if they would be happy paying twice or three times the amount for their elect bill ? Their reply is renewables are just as cheap to build, which MAY be correct, but someone still has to outlay the money, and get a return on it. And it still doesn't answer the problem........base load !!

BASE LOAD

Last week, leading lights of the global fossil power industry gathered at a conference in Houston, Texas, for CERA, known in the sector as the “Davos of Energy”. They reportedly got the shock of their professional careers.

They had invited the most senior executives from the biggest network owner (Chine State Grid Corp) in the biggest energy market in the world (China). The organisers fully expected their Chinese guest to endorse the “all of the above” marketing pitch, which is underpinning the “keep coal” campaign.

No such luck. Despite prodding by leading oil industry commentator Daniel Yergin, the chairman of State Grid Liu Zhenya reportedly said the “fundamental solution was to accelerate clean energy, with the aim of replacing coal and oil.”

Gasp number one. And then to more stunned silence, he and State Grid’s R&D chief Huang Han dismissed coal’s claim to be an indispensable source of “base load” generation.

As the network operator builds out its clean power sources, they noted, coal-fired generators could only serve as “reserve power” to supplement renewables.

“The only hurdle to overcome is ‘mindset’,” Liu said. “There’s no technical challenge at all.”

The “base load” mindset, though, is a pretty big and powerful hurdle. Across the world it infests incumbent utilities, the coal and nuclear lobbies, conservative politicians, energy regulators, and many in mainstream media, who are clinging to the concept of “base load generation” as the last resort to try to ridicule wind, solar and other technologies.

In Australia, which has more coal generation as a percentage of its energy supply than any other developed country, this perpetuation of this idea has reached fever pitch, particularly with the imminent exit of the large coal-fired power station in South Australia.

But according to Tim Buckley, from the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the idea of “base load” generation as an essential part of the energy mix is becoming redundant, and turning into a myth dreamed up by the fossil fuel industry to protect its interests.

“It’s as dangerous as the marketing term of “clean coal” and the idea that coal is “good for humanity”,” Buckley says.

New data bears this out. In China, thermal power plant utilisation rates (capacity factors) declined from 56.2 per cent on average in 2014 to a record low of just 50.9 per cent in 2015.

“This highlights coal is not ‘base load’, even in China,” Buckley says. “It is the marginal source of supply. Coal-fired power plants aren’t designed to run only half the time, but that is what is happening in China, and increasingly that is occurring in India as well.”

Indeed, CLP, the Hong Kong-based owner of the Yallourn and Mt Piper coal-fired power stations in Australia, revealed this week that its “flagship” Jhajjar coal plant in India ran at a capacity factor of just 49.9 per cent in 2015.

In Australia, it was even worse. The 1,400MW Mt Piper power station near Lithgow in NSW operated at just 45 per cent of its capacity, even after its neighbouring Wallerawang coal plant had been shut down.

Other black coal generators have been similarly afflicted, so much so that the Northern power station in South Australia is to shut permanently in May.
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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #177 on: November 30, 2017, 09:56:42 AM »
“The only hurdle to overcome is ‘mindset’,” Liu said. “There’s no technical challenge at all.”

He's absolutely right just as we could grow tomatoes on top of Ayers Rock with water flown in from Antarctic icebergs as technically feasible but there's that wee issue of allocation of resources and economics that immediately becomes obvious in such an example. At present many Australian households could go off the grid completely with enough solar panels and Tesla2 batteries or even their own gas fired or diesel fired generators but they don't for the obvious, even though that can stack up for remote households facing high user pays grid connection costs.

While Australia is retiring and blowing up old coal power plants like similar developed countries it's not swaying Asians one bit-
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/China_backs_hundreds_of_global_coal_power_projects_report_999.html
https://energytransition.org/2016/04/global-coal-power-capacity-keeps-going-up-utilisation-goes-down/

Lots of things are technically feasible and we can go back to the future with renewables like the Green ancestors but at what cost-
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/26/the-big-slide-in-renewable-energy-tells-the-real-story/

They chopped down a lot of forests and hunted some whale species to near extinction for their renewable fuels remember.






 
There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline alnjan

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #178 on: November 30, 2017, 12:25:34 PM »
Just logic would dictate you have the renewables up and running before you go about demolition and blowing up the old ones first.  Horses don't push carts.
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Offline Bird

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #179 on: November 30, 2017, 01:39:06 PM »
Quote from: alnjan
Just logic would dictate you have the renewables up and running before you go about demolition and blowing up the old ones first.  Horses don't push carts.
This is what blows my mind.. We cant go without.
They wanna kill off what we have now for a few votes, and have nothing tested, running smoothly, covering out output needs... imagine if they shut off all internet before rolling out the NBN version 12085b
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Offline gronk

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #180 on: November 30, 2017, 07:36:10 PM »
BASE LOAD



But according to Tim Buckley, from the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the idea of “base load” generation as an essential part of the energy mix is becoming redundant, and turning into a myth dreamed up by the fossil fuel industry to protect its interests.


I won't quote all the article you put up, but, what it didn't mention is what replaces coal as base load power ?? Not in 10 yrs time, but now ??
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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #181 on: December 01, 2017, 12:41:19 AM »
So much for relying on lithium batteries as saviour as the cathodes need cobalt and you'll soon need to choose between your portable electronics or EVs and Tesla Big Batteries at present-
https://dailykanban.com/2017/10/success-evs-threatened-cobalt-crisis-china/

By the way if like most you came to believe in catastrophic anthropogenic global warming/climate change/extreme weather/ocean acidification/the sky is falling from sundry taxeating doomsdayers and scientifically illiterate media types, you might be interested in examining the real scientific evidence from this scientist written for the layperson to comprehend-
http://www.mirrorsandmazes.com.au/
However if you believe science is like democracy and a popularity contest then forget it and stick with political seance and believing electricity grids run on e-motion.


There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline Pete79

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #182 on: December 04, 2017, 12:38:29 PM »
I know prodgyrf (along with one side of Australian politics and one man that owns almost every regional newspaper in this country) says all renewables are complete bulls**t.

It seams now Toyota agrees with this sentiment.... ;)
https://futurism.com/toyota-power-plant-clean-energy-manure/




Will I guess in the bright side, if we keep on pumping out pollution at the current rate, that boring as hell summer game might finally come to an end... :P

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/03/pollution-stops-play-at-delhi-test-match-as-bowlers-struggle-to-breathe

So how fast can we get that big Adani hole in the ground???

Offline Fizzie

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #183 on: December 05, 2017, 09:59:40 AM »
So how fast can we get that big Adani hole in the ground???

Latest I'm reading is that it may still not happen :D, as no-one, including China, is apparently willing to come up with the $ required to get in off the underground :D
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Offline Pete79

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #184 on: December 05, 2017, 10:35:42 AM »
Latest I'm reading is that it may still not happen :D, as no-one, including China, is apparently willing to come up with the $ required to get in off the underground :D
Haha, yeah I had that news story lined up to post too...

But I’ve been getting attacked a bit on here lately, so just thought I’d only give a little poke with this one... ;)
Hopefully I put enough smiley faces to show that I’m only having fun..... ???

Offline Pete79

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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #186 on: December 26, 2017, 10:47:07 PM »
I know prodgyrf (along with one side of Australian politics and one man that owns almost every regional newspaper in this country) says all renewables are complete bulls**t.


No you can make it reliable with storage to grab those peaks and iron out the troughs and at present that's battery, pumped hydro or molten salt technology bearing in mind the problem with wind (and solar we know as campers)-
http://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2017/December
Just that we now have the highest power prices in the world and we haven't invested in that storage yet and nobody is telling you that while our thermal power stations are wearing out and being closed one by one. Well I guess you could say the SA Govt has responded to the crisis with a Tesla big battery as a token show of storage while rolling out diesel generators that will consume 80,000L/hour of refined fossil fuels. Something does not compute if we're to go 100% renewables by whenever the poor can manage it.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2017, 10:49:18 PM by prodigyrf »
There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #187 on: December 26, 2017, 11:32:32 PM »
;)

[url=http://www.theage.com.au/business/energy/australia-s-first-offshore-wind-farm-international-funding-20171205-p4yxfb.html]http://www.theage.com.au/business/energy/australia-s-first-offshore-wind-farm-international-funding-20171205-p4yxfb.html[/URL]


Offshore wind you say? Reading between the lines-
'Mr Evans declined to say how much CIP had invested in the project but described it as ''long-term serious investment for the life of the project''.
“We are very satisfied with this partnership, and look forward to contributing our competence and experience in cooperation with Offshore Energy, all levels of government and key stakeholders in the development of the first offshore wind project in Australia.”'

More snouts in the taxpayer trough no doubt even though offshore wind is a lot more expensive than onshore wind and solar at present but well you know how it is with Gummint/consumer subsidies.

As for the Bass Straight Wave Swell testing been there, seen that done that-
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-17/oceanlinx-generator-stranded-as-court-proceedings-continue/8529602
but no doubt like geothermal feasibility subsidies to the likes of Tim Flannery's Geodynamics now in administration it's all about subsidy mining again. It's the new rivers of Green.
There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #188 on: December 28, 2017, 05:08:30 PM »
Take a leaf out of the SA Gummint's book and here's an offer you can't refuse  :cup:
https://www.mygenerator.com.au/cromtech-portable-generator-money-back-guarantee
« Last Edit: December 28, 2017, 05:15:02 PM by prodigyrf »
There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #189 on: December 28, 2017, 06:52:51 PM »
When/how did every home having lots of batteries become a green alternative?
« Last Edit: December 28, 2017, 07:02:06 PM by GeoffA »
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Offline Cruiser 105Tvan

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #190 on: December 28, 2017, 07:03:51 PM »
Take a leaf out of the SA Gummint's book and here's an offer you can't refuse  :cup:
https://www.mygenerator.com.au/cromtech-portable-generator-money-back-guarantee

How do you get rid of all those heavy and exotic metals when the batteries fail?
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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #191 on: December 28, 2017, 11:27:15 PM »
Well the unreliables fans have to come up with something soon as it's getting more unmanageable and costly-
http://www.wattclarity.com.au/2017/12/still-a-long-way-to-go-before-wind-forecasting-models-are-as-good-as-they-will-need-to-be-as-installed-capacity-grows/
SA is the driest State in the driest continent and we don't have any serious upwellings of land to pump salt water uphill into. What about you lot along the Great Dividing Range? Got some nice high valleys these Greens can scope out for some pumped salt water dams presumably, unless you've got some fresh water to spare of course?
There's no Great Evil conspiracy against consumers within engineering, manufacturing and supply. Just the many tradeoffs incurred to satisfy diverse tastes, priorities and wallets. But first comes all the insatiable Gummint eggsperts, nanny-staters and usual suspects.

Offline Pottsy

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #192 on: December 30, 2017, 03:30:07 PM »
It's pretty ironic on the day the SA gov opens it's new Tesla battery bank for reliable power, Jamestown just up the road loses power!
People fail to recognise you can have as much battery power or available power as you like but if the transmission lines fail your still in the dark, the local publican in Jamestowm has spent a considerable sum of money on his own diesel generator as have many major businesses and supermarkets in SA.
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Offline prodigyrf

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #193 on: January 19, 2018, 02:49:50 PM »
Well we're running short of reliable power at peak demand times and it's going to get a whole lot dearer as your retailer won't be able to absorb those wholesale costs at $14/KWhr-
http://joannenova.com.au/
I suppose if you keep shutting down industry temporarily and install diesel gennys it can paper over the cracks for a while but at what price?
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Offline Bird

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #194 on: January 19, 2018, 03:14:38 PM »
Wondered why we have had power flickers today...

http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/loy-yang-b-failure-sends-prices-soaring-triggers-supply-safeguards-20180119-p4yymr.html

+
South Australia stealing our power ...
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#nem-dispatch-overview
Market Notice 60847
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the VIC Region - 19/01/2018

An Actual LOR1 condition has been declared for the VIC Region from 1320 hrs.
The Actual LOR1 condition is forecast to exist until 1800 hrs

The contingency capacity reserve required is 1120 MW

The minimum reserve available is 32 MW

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Offline hainess

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #195 on: January 19, 2018, 08:33:06 PM »
http://joannenova.com.au/
Right now SA — the leading international star of renewable energy — is getting 350MW from Victoria, which is in turn, getting 700 MW from NSW and Tasmania. Queensland is sending 1,000 MW to keep the rest of the grid alive. Look at those prices! Tasmania, through some miracle of government run markets, is paying people to take electricity during these highest peak, most valuable hours of the year, when every other generator is about to earn millions.

Go figure?

Offline Pete79

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #196 on: January 20, 2018, 09:52:19 AM »
http://joannenova.com.au/
Right now SA — the leading international star of renewable energy — is getting 350MW from Victoria, which is in turn, getting 700 MW from NSW and Tasmania. Queensland is sending 1,000 MW to keep the rest of the grid alive. Look at those prices! Tasmania, through some miracle of government run markets, is paying people to take electricity during these highest peak, most valuable hours of the year, when every other generator is about to earn millions.

Go figure?

Bwwhahahah, that’s classic...
We often hear about these types of publications, never thought I’d be lucky enough to read one. Thanks for the link, that made my morning.... ;D

By some miracle of Tasmania’s non reliance of fossil fuels they manage to make electricity cheaply. What a shock aye....


Offline tryagain

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #197 on: January 20, 2018, 11:01:19 AM »
Bwwhahahah, that’s classic...
We often hear about these types of publications, never thought I’d be lucky enough to read one. Thanks for the link, that made my morning.... ;D

By some miracle of Tasmania’s non reliance of fossil fuels they manage to make electricity cheaply. What a shock aye....




Looks like the vast majority of their generating capacity is Hydro which can be dispatched on demand as opposed to solar and wind which are predominantly the renewables being bought online on the mainland, not really comparable IMHO

Offline austastar

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #198 on: January 20, 2018, 02:34:32 PM »
Hmmm!
             They missed my place, 5kW solar, and we put out more than we use.
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Offline Garfish

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Re: Power and gas is to expensive.
« Reply #199 on: January 20, 2018, 07:02:49 PM »
So last week the tesla battery was charging at prices of -$1000 now it could be selling it back at $14000.  Sweet profits of $15000/ mwh if they didn't have to discharge in between


https://www.indy100.com/article/tesla-massive-battery-paid-charge-itself-australia-elon-musk-south-australia-hornsdale-8161726
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